♠ FREE POKER TOOLS
Explore poker variance.
Simplified models and an approximate equity quiz. Results depend on assumptions and are not betting advice.
♠ INSTRUMENT 01 // RUN IT 800 TIMES
One set of assumptions. 800 modelled outcomes.
Choose a win-rate assumption, stake and sample size. The model samples blocks of results 800 times to illustrate how outcomes can spread. It does not deal actual hands or reproduce individual players.
// METHOD — per-100-hand results drawn from a normal distribution (σ≈100 bb/100 NLHE, ≈150 PLO), 800 runs, 20 plotted. Assumed standard deviations, not measured site data. Paths continue after crossing zero; this is an unrestricted profit model. The highlighted path is the middle finisher among the 20 plotted paths, not all 800 runs.
♥ INSTRUMENT 02 // THE ALL-IN QUIZ
Preflop equities, burned in by streak.
Estimates use one million sampled boards per matchup, rounded to whole percentages. Choose the closest rounded equity estimate for the displayed heads-up matchup. Equity includes half of tied pots; it is not a recommendation to play a hand.
All-in preflop. What's the left hand's equity?
♦ INSTRUMENT 03 // RISK OF RUIN
Explore a model of bankroll risk.
The approximation RoR = e−2·WR·B/σ² illustrates bankroll risk under fixed assumptions. Change the assumed win rate, variability and bankroll to explore the model’s sensitivity. This is not a measured probability for an individual player.
Illustrative inputs. Estimate standard deviation from your own data; it varies by game and strategy.
This infinite-horizon diffusion approximation assumes a constant positive winrate, fixed stakes, independent results and no withdrawals. One buy-in means 100 big blinds. Real play can violate these assumptions; no bankroll size guarantees safety.
UNDERSTAND THE INPUTS
A worked model example
A $0.50 big blind means 100 big blinds equals $50. A win-rate assumption of 2 bb/100 represents $1 per 100 hands before the model’s random variation. It is an input, not a measured win rate or a forecast for BetOnline.
The simulator samples blocks of results from a normal distribution. It does not deal cards or reproduce the actual opponents, game selection, fees or changing skill of a player. Paths can continue below zero, so the chart is not a simulation of an account that stops playing when its funds run out.
The risk-of-ruin tool is an infinite-horizon diffusion approximation with fixed assumptions. Its percentage is not a verified personal probability. Use the numbers to understand sensitivity to assumptions, not to choose money you should gamble.
Understand the costs behind a win-rate assumption → · How we label models →
YOUR DECISION · YOUR NEXT STEP
Turn the model into a useful question.
Use these tools to understand assumptions, then compare the room’s actual costs and conditions.
Keep in mind
Simulations do not predict profit or recommend a playing budget.
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